What will be the future of Satyam Computers?

my friend as per the convesation stetement done by ramdev agrawal co founder of mosl ltd
Q: Your thoughts on Satyam and where this episode will end. As a value hunter, can you take an investment call on this?

A: Absolutely not. I think itâ€™s very dangerous to even talk about value because first thing you must understand what we are buying. One of the biggest challenges right now is to understand what you are buying in Satyam. What is the extent of damage? Where is the cash flow? Whether the business is actually profitable or not? Whether the clients are going to stay or not? What kind of leadership team you are going to get? So, the whole lot of things are there and so I do not understand what the underlying value is.

At some point of time I was thinking that there is USD 2 billion business among others but yet the leadership team is not in place. So, itâ€™s risky to put any kind of bet there unless no one is willing to lose the entire bet.

Q: Whatâ€™s your own gut feeling about how this entire issue will get resolved? Will they bring in a new team and try to resolve things or do you think this will probably get split up into little parts and hived off to salvage whatever cash there can be?

A: It looks dicey because they have a very attractive and large business. In this crisis, all kinds of agencies are stepping in but still no clear way is visible. Clients are also being run by some professionals, and they have to justify to their board why should they continue with Satyam at this juncture after the scam and everything?

In next three-four-five-six months, most good, large clients would definitely lookout to make an exit from here to some other firm. So, very quickly getting a leadership team in place and turning around the entire image and making a better place than what it was earlier is the biggest challenge.

The appointment of two-three credible persons on the board has happened, but how fast they get the CEO team who is willing to take the responsibility to clean up the place and run the business is yet not visible. So, nothing can be said at this juncture how things will end up.
Q: Speaking of corporate governance issues how did you read into Siemens taking out SISL (Siemens Information Systems Ltd) at Rs 450 crore? Would you worry about whatâ€™s going on there and in your eyes has Siemens fallen as a stock?

A: Yes, in that sense. It is convenient for them to make it as part of Siemens India listed outfit then at times businesses are transferred from unlisted space into the listed space and from listed space to unlisted space. I think it keeps going on and at times one feels that price given or taken is not appropriate because what happens is something happens in their global strategy and then they decide to do the things here.

I think somewhere large global MNCs they may not be fit to be listed the way they are listed here in part way and some of those things come up because of that. But per se Siemens would not be doing with an interim motive of shifting some profit from here to there. I think it is part of the global strategic alignment of their businesses. So, because of that they may have to probably do it here. But I do not think there is per se fudging of the books or trying to shift profit from one side to other side, I do not think so.

Q: Brokerage income has come down quite a bit this time. What is it that you foresee by way of volumes over the rest of calendar year even and how that might impact brokerage operations for you?

A: I was looking at some numbers. I think in the first nine months, actual value wise across exchanges, the volume drop is just about 16%. Of course, the character of volumes has changed. More Nifty options are taking place and things like that. Brokerage bearing volumes are far lower than 16%. When the market revises, I think we are going to see further build-up in volumes.

Actually one of the things which is happening is despite 50-60% drop in stock prices, total value-wise the volume in the market is significantly higher in terms of the number of shares. So, it means that market is becoming a more popular place as we are looking at it and distribution build-up is happening. People are reaching out deeper into the country and hence whenever market stabilises and turns around, we are quite optimistic about the build-up in value as well as volume of the market.

Q: The big crash though is in the investment banking division for Motilal Oswal. Is there any element of the Great Offshore deal in that?

A: No. I think in the October-November-December quarter, we did lot of work but nothing fructified. The buyers withdrew completely all the bets they had and sellers wanted to sell the thing at the prices at which it was negotiated, but the buyers clearly wanted to renegotiate the deals all over. So, it was a completely dry quarter, there was a 94% correction. It was quite staggering that the deals didnâ€™t have worthwhile revenue. But I think