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Tarzan | Are we investors suckers for the mantra "long term investing"? |
when every hedge fund and politician out there is causing these huge swings and ruining the markets? I have been in the markets for about 11 years and have barely made a dime by LONG TERM INVESTING. Everyone always says during meltdowns like this, DONT FEAR, or THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY...Give me a break....This isn't your fathers market...this is a uncontrolled casino playing us all like little puppets.....and now here we are THOSE THAT STAYED IN FOR LONG TERM stuck here again just like the the DOT COM CRASH....What is long term anymore? 20, 30, 50, 100 YEARS?
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Repairmanjack
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Long term is 60 years, give or take a few. I've been investing since I was in my early 20s and am now 55. I retired when I was 47 and never have to work again.
Long term investing worked VERY well for me.
What asset allocation do you hold? Do you have any emerging markets? (over the past 10 years my emerging markets went up 14.46%) Foreign? REITs? How much do you pay in fees? Are you re-balancing? What % do you have in bonds? Do you use a 'financial advisor'? If so, studies show that hurts your returns a lot because of the fees.
Go to www.saveyournestegg.com if you don't know the answers I asked above and you can also email me from there. I'll try to help you if I can. |
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Beau.Gus
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It is close to impossible to lose money if you actually follow a long-term investment strategy, if you have done so, you have either been astonishingly unlucky, or you haven't really been following (and sticking to) a long-term plan. Over ANY twenty year period since 1890, you would have made good money in the market simply by buying & holding Dow components. You should be averaging between 8% & 12% overall, assuming you reinvest all dividends and you don't try to "time" your purchases.
If you had paid NO attention to daily "swings", & invested the equivalent of roughly $35 a day for the last two decades, you'd be a millionaire today. Easy.
Folks who bought technology stocks during the "dot.com" boom (and subsequent bust) were NOT investing, they were gambling, the underlying fundamentals were not there to justify the soaring stock prices. Any time someone tells you "it's different this time!", you would be wise to completely ignore that person! The market is driven by human nature, and human nature has not changed significantly for several thousand years...
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Amen
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We are in a historical period at the moment where I don't think the old buy and hold strategy applies any longer. This is the best information I have ever found regarding economics. It can be watched and understood by most anyone and the message is very alarming, yet the author is upbeat and I think you might find it very interesting and educational.
htttp://www.chrismartenson.com/crashco...
I agree with your opinion of long term investing and so do all of the best sources I have found. |
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siasconset
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Your experience is the order of the day. It's hard to read some of the arrogant replies below; there are some people who have been lucky. My grandfather was lower-class, but a blue chip, buy and hold investor, and made me promise to do the same. He kept up with inflation that way. His hard earned money (my inheritance)? Gone. My earnings from 22 years of hard work? Wiped out. And how could that happen? From following all the sober, self-satisfied, conservative, wrong advice I kept getting. I saved. I bought and held, even after getting slammed over and over. I bought blue chip: Ford. Chrysler. US Steel. Textron. And the mutual funds my conservative, pinstripe-suited CFP etc. recommended.
I had a bright future. I'm a doctor, and I work hard. I didn't spend on my life, I saved. I've never made an impulsive or careless investment. Now retirement is out of the question. I will have to work to keep my house and car until I die or become too ill to work.
You're right. Don't buy into yesterday's platitudes. It's a new world, and there are smart and sophisticated people with powerful friends working hard to make sure that the market is too complex for average chumps to navigate, and ready to pick up his losses. Invest with care, if you can and will, but ALWAYS put part of your money in the safest place you can find (CDs, T-bills). Don't end up with a lifetime of regret for your work. Good luck.
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TweetyBird
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When selling your stocks (at a loss) is not an option and the
general market is downward or in a slump, it becomes a good time to
generate a little cash by selling "options". Read and study how to
do option plays. You can make enough money to keep your head
above water while your waiting for the market to take off again.
No reason for your investments to just sit and deteriorate.
Study, study, study then "Go-For-It" Thank God for Options!
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raysor
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Your success or failure is nothing to do with the term, it's to do with the investment, surely. I have a portfolio set up about 18 years ago(and subsequently added to) and it is still showing a good profit and income. No sales have been made although some original stocks have disappeared or reduced by buy-backs etc. I can't remember all the details but for example there is Coventry 12.125% PIB in there purchased at just over £100% (yielding around 12%), Rio Tinto bought at 800p and Ceres Power which has quadrupled. Obviously some of the holdings have gone down but as a whole the portfolio is performing very well and should continue to do so. |
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src50
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It works. Just using a simple S&P 500 index fund has yielded a good "long term" return. If you have picking individual stocks, you are less diversified and your risk increases. |
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Autumn
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Thanks John for asking this question. I've had this same thought over and over. I, too, have heard all those lines and I really want to believe that the market will rally. So I really don't have an answer to your question. I just empathize with you. Such uncertain times is making it hard for me to live in the present. UGH, and I've had to work so hard for the money I've saved.........I'm just holding with my investments. Nothing else to do. To withdraw is with a huge loss. I feel trapped by my own decisions to be proactive in saving for my future. Can't win it seems.
Good luck you to. I wish you the best. |
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Nick Z
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The only kind of long-term investment that makes sense is when you buy the whole company and gain control over it. Because then the management has to work in your favor, and they can't just pocket the profits for themselves.
The managers of many publicly owned companies pay themselves huge bonuses worth many millions and even billions of dollars. And this money of course is paid to them at the expense of the shareholders. This is the money shareholders would've had as profits, if the management didn't pay themselves such huge salaries and bonuses.
The managers of many businesses are running their businesses for their own benefit and not for the benefit of shareholders. And that's why the only kind of long term investment that makes sense for small investors is short-selling. If you short-sell the shares of a company and wait for a few years. Then chances are good that you will make a profit in the end. But if you buy the shares and keep them that long. Then chances are that you will loose money.
The only thing to be concerned about in short-selling is inflation. The prices of stocks can rise during periods of high inflation, even when the businesses are badly managed. The stock market in Zimbabwe had the biggest percentage gains in the world due to inflation, even when the Zimbabwean economy was falling apart. |
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Mark S IV
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Historically it's true, that if you invest for the long term, you will make money, but........
Over the last 20 years the DOW is up 500%
Over the last 15 years the DOW is up 200%
Over the last 9 years the DOW is down 7%
Over the last 1 year the DOW is down 25%
Although it is true that investing makes money, it really depends upon when you start investing. If you invested in 1964, by 1982 you made 0%. If you invested in 1994, by 1999 you made 275%.
If you invested in 2007 it may well take you 20 years before you show a profit. More important than how long you invest, is when you invest. It's a classic bubble scenario, the first guy in makes all the money. |
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