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Mike | Black Tuesday? The stock markets are down around the world. Are we in for a Global Depression? |
It is Tuesday morning, January 22, 2008.
The stock markets are down around the world on fears of a Global recession or depression (whichever you prefer)
Are we in for a Global Depression?
Why or why not?
Please give your reasoning for your answer. |
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Jean
|
Yes, I think that we are.
The government figures mask some serious problems in the economy.
For example the unemployment figures are artificially low because they only show the numbers of people collecting unemployment benefits.
When those unemployment benefits run out they are no longer counted as unemployed.
In the manufacturing areas such as Michigan and Ohio where I am originally from and where I have many relatives, the true unemployment rates of people able to work and of working age, but unable to find a job is approximately 30%.
That is even higher than it was during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
I am an electrical engineer in Sunnyvale, California, the famous Silicon Valley. Many of us are contrat workers.
At any one time approximately 20 to 30% of the people that I know in the industry are unemployed.
In fact I see in the newspaper this morning that even Yahoo is laying off people because of the downturn in the economy and the drop in business that Yahoo has suffered.
Foreclosures of homes are at record highs. Millions of people all across the nation have lost their homes to foreclosures.
The government figures are deliberately misleading to make the economy look good.
However that is like putting lipstick on a pig.
You can put all the lipstick on it that you want, but it is still a pig.
We are in a Recession right now, if not a full blown Depression. |
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redwine
 |
define global depression? several years of negative GDP earnings, the answer is NO!. Asia is still humming, it will slow down as the US and world does, but no it will not have negative returns for years on end. Too many good things going on there. Financials are bad, but system will not collapse, that's what the central bankers were established to stop, so there will be lending and we, the proud consumer will spend if we have the funds. A recession is possible, but not a depression. tba |
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janice h
 |
No, I don't believe we are going into a depression. Actually I think we are seeing the end of a small recession. Basically a market correction. If the media would quit with the gloom and doom I think people would realize that they are actually better off than they have been in quite awhile. |
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▲ßûІІѕ vÅŸ ßèÄŗѕ▼
|
2 words, panic and fear
that's all
if we are in recession for real, the media contributed 46% by screaming recession when we are not 'officially' in recession yet
actually it's probably already too late |
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Cafe Au Lait
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Speaking for India, the economic picture is extremely good and encouraging. Growth rate is expected to be over 9% this year. It is nowhere close to recession, forget about depression. In fact the market here is heavily oversold. |
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da_zoo_keeper
 |
I don't think so! I think global mkts still follow ours and with the rate cuts in place, it will slow things down for a bit and then they'll pick up. I would say a recession is in effect, but depression doesn't seem likely. |
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nikki
|
I too would like to know. People are talking of the depression of 30's and that is scary.
Personally I don't know much. Is depression a prolonged recession? |
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The Shadow
|
If you read your history, you'll find that a depression is nothing like what we're experiencing today. Yes, the stock market is down and people are nervous, but that is not the definition of a depression.
During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was over 20%. Today, it's 5%. The depression was caused in part by very restrictive trade laws. That's not true today. The depression was caused in part by excessive margin trading. There are much greater restrictions on it today. (It's not illegal, as someone else claimed.)
Actually, 1987 was far worse then today. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones dropped 22% in ONE DAY. That's even worse than in 1929 and is the equivalent of a fall of 2,660 points on the Dow in today's terms. Yet, no depression occurred in 1987 (even though many feared that it would) because the underlying economic conditions for a depression did not exist.
I can understand that people are nervous, but we shouldn't be that nervous. |
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superSymmetric
|
I think you have asked a great question. And contrary to all those who have posted answers explaining how a depression could NEVER happen again, or about how GREAT the world economy is doing, I do believe that it is possible, and without some SERIOUS changes to the way we utilize and allocate resources worldwide, I think it is inevitable. It seems as though those who are in the financial sector, or who deal primarily with credit/stocks/bonds etc., have completely lost touch with the reality of what it is that REALLY makes the world go round - stuff like food, water, oil (for now), medicine. As the population of our planet continues to grow, the amount of potable water is rapidly diminishing. As are oil reserves. And as these NATURAL RESOURCES become more scarce, it is inevitable that the cost of them will spiral upward (as oil is now) and those spiraling costs will flow down into the costs of all goods.
I am not saying this as a "doom and gloomer." I am saying it as a realist. Every time I hear the stockbrokers, bankers, traders, and hedge fund managers talk about this stuff, they speak as if we live in some imaginary "bubble of abundance," where we are all immune from the effects of overpopulation and natural resource depletion. But it won't matter if you're worth $100 billion on paper if there is no drinkable water, will it? Of course, "they" all say that "we" are a bunch of fear mongers, and that there is nothing to worry about. But I wonder - what are they really worried about? Funny - I don't think it's the global water situation, overpopulation, over farming, depleting oil resources.
I for one, am a little concerned. And that is because I get my information from scientists - not financial advisors. |
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stevexnelson
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It looks that way.
These are scary times. |
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KerryK
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well, even though the markets are dropping, it isn't the same as 1929. First of all, in 1929 people were buying stocks on margin (borrowing money from banks to buy stocks) which is now illegal. When the markets crashed then people still owed the banks money. The banks basically accelerated the problem. We don't have that problem now so even if we do go into a Depression, it will not be as bad as in the 30's. |
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src50
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Good God, you've been ingesting too much caffeine! |
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