Andrew S
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No method or formula ever consistently predicts stock (or any other asset) prices.
Prices react pretty quickly to new information; many of the most intelligent, educated, well-funded people in the world take their best guess (armed with literally billions of dollars woth of software, Ivy League degrees, thousands of researchers) and are wrong at least 70% of the time. (30% of asset managers or investors beat the market index. 70 % fail.)
This is consistent with the "efficient market hypothesis," and it's generally accepted (in the weak or semi-strong form at least) by virtually all of academia, Wall Street, and any reputable CPA, MBA, CFA, or market professional.
Very general predictions can be close enough to be called by "technical analysis" - but all academic research (plus the very tenets of modern portfolio theory) discredit it.
Fundamental analysis (the company's earnings, cash, liabilities, etc, as detailed in audited financial statements) along with well-reasoned, thorough security analysis, may turn up a few bargains or at least save you from heavy losses.
But many (if not most) traders and speculators lose their shirts. I do my homework & invest long-term, like a well-run business does.
I do take risks and occaisionally I'll go short term, but that's rare. I sell independent equity research and have had few negative years in my own portfolio - most years I meet or beat my benchmark.
I'll check out Holygrailtrading just out of curiosity - but obviously, if they had some sort of crystal ball, they wouldn't share it (though eventually someone would figure it out and any riskless profits would disappear).
Hedge funds and many institutional investors zealously guard their trading strategies, models, research, etc - usually they have 2 or more brokers and tell their own investors very little.
So no, the markets cannot be predicted by anyone other than God or a time traveler (neither of whom have ever given us any reliable market predictions).
Edit:
Just checked out this site, and it's as I suspected.
Edit #2:
You probably can make a quick buck shorting some of Cramer's shakier picks. |
Stupid answer guy
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In theory yes, but you have to have some very powerful computers running millions of calculations per second, and even then, in theory, it would take years to make a prediction, by which point, the event your predicting has been and gone! |
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