 Where should I open my first money market account? |
| I don't have a lot of money to start with- only 10% of my salary, but I am interested in starting to save. HELP!!!... |
|
 What are your thoughts on the Democrat's 401(k) plan? |
| There are fear-mongering media outlets saying that Democrats want to take away our tax breaks on our 401(k) accounts and force those of us who work hard and save for our retirement to pay an extra 5% ... |
|
 What are the 5 best open ended Mutual Funds to purchase now.? |
| NAV target is within 12 Rupees, and the MF can be either to be launched or already listed. Thanks for all advices.... |
|
 How to learn about real stocks, that one can buy? |
| Looking for small cap stocks, which i can buy. I have been reading a lot of books about stocks but still don't understand how to pursue the right stock.... |
|
 With the stock market going down, and looking like we're in a recession, will gold stocks do well? |
| In times of recession, the stock market going down, the economy slowing down and a weak dollar....is it best to put my money in gold stocks at this time? do they perform well in this type of ... |
|
 What is a good global/international fund? |
i guess i'm trying to avoid the american economy and go for stable high growth international?
Additional Details
marketiva account does not accept ... |
|
 Is Sony a good investment? |
| Is investing in Sony stocks a good financial decision? Why or why not?... |
|
 My good friend has been in the military for the past 4 years and has saved $50,000 what should he do? ? |
| He had been playing the stocks but he quit for now. He is thinking it would be good to invest it in purchasing land while property is selling low or buy a forclosure. He doesnt get out for two more ... |
|
 How do I obtain funds in order to begin trading options? |
I'm trying to find out if there're some sort of loans specifically designed to be invested into trading options or futures.
If anyone knows anything, I'd appreciate if you share ... |
|
 Shall I buy or rent now? |
| I live in South west of england and I am very much confused whether to buy or rent a house in this curent market situation? I will be going back to my country after 5-6 years and thinking whether it ... |
|
|  |
sarosh h | Do 100% Forex Traders Loose: Random Walk Theory? |
There is a school of through that belives that in stocks or forex trading you are 100% looser.
Please answer pro-data and logical. |
 |
 
a5150ylee
|
By definition, if you believe in random walk theory, then only 50% would loose the other half would be the lucky ones who were on the other side of the trade. |
|
Ted
 |
There is a huge difference between trying to trade minute by minute, which is almost totally random, and trying to ride a long term trend, which most certainly is not.
Successful traders like George Soros and Jerry Parker make their money on the trends. Most people don't have the patience and try for short term stuff and lose. |
|
MM
 |
A lot of studies have examined the track record of professional and amateur traders and have concluded that they lose. Randomness and unpredictability has a lot to do with this.
It's not 100% because, just as in gambling in a casino, the odds guarantee a few winners. Of course, if these winners continue playing chances are that they will lose their winnings.
There are some examples of professional traders who have won money and "kept" their money. Perhaps they quit after a winning streak, or perhaps they're careful not to gamble all their winnings. Of course, this success simply could be the result of luck and chance, nothing more.
The random walk hypothesis says that asset prices are not predictable. It uses a normally distributed random variable in a formula which is used to determine fair value for derivatives. Being a model it's not perfect, it tends to make some assumptions that may not be entirely accurate, but it seems to have worked well for the past forty years.
For information on the theory behind the random walk, see Introduction to Mathematical Finance by Paul Wilmott. If you're an engineer you may want to see The Mathematics of Finance by Wilmott, which is an introduction to the math behind it.
Financial markets are not a true random walk in the mathematical sense. They exhibit certain characteristics of randomness in certain circumstances, while in others they don't. For information on how randomness affects the world of trading see the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb.
Most people don't understand probability. If they did they wouldn't gamble in casinos or buy lottery tickets. Same thing with trading. If people understood it, they would not trade. Of course, a lot of people think there's a "secret" they can figure out which will make them rich. So they trade until they can't any more. Some of them trade their whole lives even though they have nothing to show for it at the end. |
|
dear_eggie
 |
Random walk theory or the probabilityof a toss of a coin. In the long run the distribution of wins to losses, will tend to 50:50. In lay man's language that is one step forward and 1 step backward. BUT you still can get ahead. Just make sure that the step you step forward is longer than the step you take backward.
That means you must always look for a set up in the chart pattern that gives you a risk/reward ratio of 3:1 if not 2:1. That will ensure that you will always be moving forward.
So even though you are still taking 1 step forward and 1 step backward, you are still moving forward.
Therefore random walk is a looser walk if its unorganized walk. But if its a strategic random walk you will still get ahead. |
|
leodimilo.com
|
Short term trades and the random walk goes hand in hand but banks make a decent return trading with the long term trends in mind.
That said, most of the successful forex traders trade with the trend, not against it and usually trade either with the primary trend or the secondary trend. I think that the "minor" trend tends to support the random walk theory.
To say that trading is luck period and not a learned skill is absolutely ludricrous considering that corporations and big business make profits off it. Do you think that they would be simply betting their stockholders funds if there wasn't some sort of system in place? |
|
leo madrigal
 |
go direct to www.regal-international.com...tell me what you get.. |
|
blunderbuss
|
I've heard it said that seven trades out of ten lose money in forex; this means that traders hedge their bets on those remaining three, which might be centered around market movers such as interest rate decisions or non-farm payroll announcements. |
|
aguy
 |
For me, market is random because I don't know the guys who are dealing the cards. It's like the student distribution. Believe me that you can place random orders to form a statistic cloud that in some point of the future will be profitable. This point will be closer if you place many random orders. It's a refinement of placing one single order and wait long enough to be profitable. |
|
aguy
 |
I htink market is random. Even it has some bias like trends, pivots level or fibs, I don't really know for sure they work. So it is better to treat the market as being random.
Being random means that it will go up and down, forever.
So there is a 100% safe method to win. Place a random order now and wait the market to make it a winner.
I don't understand those who say you can't win at Forex.
I admit this is unpractical, but this is the basis of the concept you can win. You only have to devise an intelligent system of orders, based on statistics, and let the equity variate until it is profitable.
So, if the statistics says you can win, why don't you agree with it ?
|
|
| |
|
| | |
| Questions List |
Answers | Last Post
| | | |
7 | 3 minutes(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 37 minutes(s) ago
| | | |
8 | 2 hour(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 7 hour(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 9 hour(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 1 day(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 5 day(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 6 day(s) ago
| | | |
5 | 2 week(s) ago
| | | |
7 | 1 month(s) ago
| |
|
Homepage 
Financial
Forum 
Investing 
No Spam
Adult 
Gambling
Unfinished
Deception
Plagiarism
Not English
