
4XTrader
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No, gold prices will not go down. First Jay Z is incorrect. Virutally every country ,at least that I know of, no longer backs their currency with gold. They are pure fiat (meaning "by decree"). When a currency is backed by gold, you can only print enough money as the gold will back. For example, if you have $50 billion in gold, you can only print $50 billion in currency as you only have that much gold to back up the currency. When the U.S. Dollar was gold backed, at anytime, anyone could trade in their dollars for the equivalent value in gold. That's why you couldn't have more currency in circulation than you had gold to back it up. Now, the dollar is pure fiat. There is nothing backing it except the credit and good faith of the government.
Take a look at this. Currently, the U.S. gold reserves are 8133.5 tonnes or 286,900,769.516912 ounces. At the current rate of about $620 per ounce for gold, thats about $177.9 billion. As of July 2006 the M1 money supply (M1 is all phyiscal money in circulation, ie, paper and coin) is $1.37 trillion dollars. So you can see, our gold reserves can in no way back the amout of physical money in the market. The M2 supply as of July 2006 is $6.85 trillion and the Fed (as of March 2006) no longer reports the M3 numbers which is the total money in circulation. The amount of currency in circulation in most countries far outstrips their gold reserves.
So, back to the your question. No, gold will not go down, at least not much. Sure, you do have prices moving up and down, but the primary trend for gold is up. Gold is a barometer of misery and a store of wealth. As things get tough or bad in the world, people will buy gold. Also, as inflation increases, people buy gold to preserve their wealth and buying power. Do you see things getting bad in the world? We're just 1 incident away from WWIII breaking out in the middle east. Is inflation rising? Yes, virtually every central bank is raising rates to fight off rising inflation. Gold, may go down a bit, but it's got a long way to go on the upside before it tops out. I'm looking at $2000 to $2500 per ounce before we see a top in gold. |