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Sir Lucius | Given China and India's growth, should I rethink what a diversified portfolio looks like? |
I'm investing for a 30+ year horizon and I have a hypothesis that I should put the majority of my money in index funds tied to the stock markets of India (India Index Exchange Traded Note) and China (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) because those are economies of growth. I have heard that American companies such as GE, Gillete, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. will benefit by serving these countries, but I still think that foreign firms based in those countries will better understand and take advantage of those markets. Furthermore, why should I assume that the American markets are any more safe for my money than China or India? From an education standpoint, the U.S. is not looking too competitive 20 or 30 years from now and that is not good for an economy that is dependent on innovation. For my equity investments I was thinking of this distribution:
Fidelity Asset Manager (85%) - 20%
India Index Exchange Traded Note (INP) - 40%
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) - 40% |
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CHARLES R
 |
My biggest concern is the lack of a developed accounting industry over there. China has a high probability of major accounting fraud.
Secondly have you ever seen an Indian stand up for themselves? So are you going to see an Indian auditor stand up and whistle blow when they're asked to falsify financial statements? no. |
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crapaudblanc
 |
This is not too bad thinking but trust my 20 + years of investing experience and never bet all your eggs on the same type of investment. Japan was taking over the world 20 years ago and see what happen now. You don't know if a change in regime, a natrual catastrophy or something else will come and disturb the EM markets like China or India. Furhermore market regulations and liquidity is deffinitly an issue in China nad India. I would say if you have 1%0 of your porfolio to loose be my guest and invest in high risk markets. I rather start with a good mix of US, EU stocks, some bonds, some market hedging funds, learn about call and put options as hedging tools, buy some Gold index funds, ladder your bonds, then start putting some $ into EM.
Never underestimate the US markets...we just need a change of regime right now.
Good luck. |
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Kiker
|
I like your iShares FTSE, but I would look into dropping that within the next few years...possibly by 2010.
I am not a big fan of the India Index exchange. I am not a big fan of Index funds. Here's why: Indicies were NEVER designed to do anything more than be a barometer of the market's performance. They were NEVER designed to beat the market and therefore are either on par with the market or operate BELOW the market. You are dead-on about getting involved Internationally though. The US impact from international growth is only obvious, but this is HEAVILY dependant on the success of the US Dollar. As it stands, China is looking at unloading some of its dependancy on the USD for the EUR. Now, they will not be completely unloading it, rather setting up a Currency Basket that 70% of which is comprised of the USD, but this is a sign of things to come. Since you mentioned a 30 year time horizon, I would keep this in the back of your head.
China and India are quite expensive. China is expensive, but their momentum from Foreign Direct Investment for the upcoming Olympics has made them attractive all the same. India is expensive due to inflation and market/government inefficiencies. They are set to correct this, but its a slow process.
My current focus is on Emerging Markets that have a high, positive current account balance and a large supply of foreign reserves. These markets also need to have to be export heavy, as importing would only detract from their current account balance. For this, I am looking at Singapore and Viet Nam; with Columbia on the sidelines looking to come in. These are economies that are poised to survive quite nicely in the event of a global recession (or even just a US recession) and they are currently pretty cheap.
Since you are already in iShares, you may want to investigate some ETFs regarding these markets.
I would look into also adjusting your portfolio to include some sort of Bonds. Municipal Bonds are a personal favorites, as they are Federally Tax Exempt and are generally State Tax exempt. As your funds expand beyond their initial allocation, you can trim them back to their percentage by capturing your gains and storing them in the Bonds. I prefer Bonds, NOT bond funds!!!
So, to recap, I would look a limiting your exposure to China and maybe look into something else besides an Indian Index ETN. And then look into cutting back on your overall investment allocation to include some Municipal bonds and a Singapore or Viet Nam iShare or ETF. |
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Amanda B
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It is almost a universal agreement among the investment community that over the next 20 to 30 years both India and china will outperform a majority of other world economies. A couple of this you might want to consider are;
1. Volatility- Emerging economies can have large ups and downs they also may have extended periods (months or even years) of low or no growth followed by huge upswings. This might be an okay strategy if you are patient and not the type of investor who will be worried and sell if your investment takes a substantial downturn.
2. Diversification-There are several other emerging economies that have a lot of potential as well such as Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and South Africa to name a few. If you were to invest in a more broadly diversified fund such as EEM or VWO you could further diversify to reduce risk volatility. |
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piet lul
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not bad son. |
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muncie birder
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That proposed distribution would be extremely risky, but you are certainly correct in your thinking. However, when you look at the potential of China and India you do not need to allocate 80% of your assets in order to enjoy the potential. About 10% to each location would be sufficient and 15% would be very aggressive. I do have to say that I am not greatly in favor of index funds. The capitalization weighting of them is detrimental to diversification of investments and also increases the specific risk of the portfolio. I am much more in favor of diversified mutual funds. Also I would not neglect investments in other parts of the world either although FAM does allocate a small portion of the portfolio to international stocks. |
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myacumen.com
 |
You may want to consider further diversification as you grow your portfolio. |
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budman_aggie
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If you're willing to take on that much risk then you could potentially get huge returns. Many international growth mutual funds have way outperformed their American counterparts, at least in recent years. Its true that India and China are likely to see massive growth in the next 10, 20, and 30 years. To answer your question, I would definately say that American markets are safer than Indian and Chineese markets due to the stability of our government. Especially in China, there is no way to tell what their government will be like in the future. I agree with your point about education....that is one area where America needs to pick up the pace. At my university, the graduate programs consist heavily of Asian and Indian students, much higher proportions that American students. Many of them will take their knowledge back to their country, so we experience a "brain drain" and a loss of human capital.
I guess to sum everything up, the portfolio you have suggested has a huge potential for gains in the long term, but also substantial risk. No doubt if India and China's GDP growth continues at the rate that it has been with no political instability then these markets will reap huge returns, both for American companies doing business there and for India and Chinese companies. Just look at PetroChina and China Mobile and think about their potential customer base. Just look at your overall financial picture and if you are in a position to take on this much risk, then go for it. |
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