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Mr SmoothHead | How low to wait for DOW to drop before I buy? |
I know it's very speculative, but how low should I wait for DOW to drop before I buy some mutual funds?
I'm planning on $10-30,000 on a indexed fund such as Vanguard Index 500.
I'm thinking Dow will fall to around 11,500.
Any opinions? |
 |
 
eric c
|
If you are looking to buy a S&P 500 index fund, look at the S&P index to help you make your decision not the DJIA. There are difference in how each index will react and there is a differance in each chart. If you are aggressive anything between 1310 and 1240 on the S&P 500 looks good to me. Dont try and hit the absolute bottom, make at least two buys at "good" entry points, three would be better, you will get the average. |
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b2fnow
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A bounce is likely from here, as it has been likely for the past 3 days, and a second leg down is even more likely eventually.
When, how much? Anybody's guess. |
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Shaun R
 |
Who knows how far the Dow will go. If you are going to buy the Dow when it is really low the best thing to do is to wait for it to stop falling first.
Try and wait for a reversal pattern. This website will help you learn a lot about trading. It will help you more than you would think. |
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billypea
|
You may not get 11,500 for a while. It does seem to be the next support after 11,900 but it doesn't look very strong to me. I see more support at the 11,250 area but the real support is in the 10,500 - 10,700 area, which would not surprise me to see if we did get to 11,500.
I think there is a good chance for a short term bounce from the 11,900s to the 12,300s starting next week... 11,900 could be a nice double bottom with the lows from last March. In which case $DJI *should* trade between 12,000 and 12,700 for a while
I would like to see Accumulation/Distribution drop 12% or so to the 80,000,000 area before calling a bottom. And that could mean 11,500 or lower. Too tough to speculate now, ust keep watching and reading the charts and economic indicators. |
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tom
 |
Use this simple trick, a 50 day moving average and the S&P-500:
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart6:s...
When the 50 day is over the S&P-500 go to cash when it is under load up on your best mutual funds. Give it a few days beathing room to minimize whipsawing. We tested this method on the DOW all way back to 1929. It works.The S&P works a little better in the last 20 years.
Ignore all news like interest rate cuts, great news about the economy, free government cheese for every American or any other BS. The SP and the 50 day is not going to lie to you, let it tell you when it is time to get back in. |
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trader
|
It is impossible to guess where the market will bottom at. If you do, it is just pure luck. Support levels can and do get broken. It is statistically better to wait for the lows to be retested. If there is a bounce off a low test with substantial volume, then you will know that the bottom has most likely occured. |
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jeff410
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Most diversified mutual funds use the S&P as a benchmark. And mutual funds are a longterm investment. Never try to time the market. The sooner you invest the more you will have years from now. |
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Cassius
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Depends if the crisis will get fixed soon you are right, if, heaven forbis, there will be lentghy debates in congress before a vote is reached then panic sets in and the dow might go to 10 maybe even 95 |
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MM
 |
Take a look at a 10 year chart of the Dow and look at the years 2000-2003.
As this was the last recession, this may serve as a guide.
Also take a look at this: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/griess/2004/0727.html |
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