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Nickel May Rise 20% on Smelter Shortage, Credit Suisse Says

By Madelene Pearson

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The price for nickel, used to make stainless steel, may rise 20 percent as a shortage of smelters to process ore into metal constrains supply, Credit Suisse Group said in a report.

Nickel may reach $65,000 a metric ton in the ``near term,'' Credit Suisse London-based analysts led by Jeremy Gray and Eily Ong said in a report dated May 16. Smelting output may grow at 4.6 percent this year compared with demand growth as high as 5 percent should stainless steelmakers rebuild inventories and global economic growth increase, the report said.

Nickel for immediate delivery rose to a record $54,050 a metric ton in London on May 15 as China's economic growth fueled demand for the metal. Cost overruns and delays at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Ravensthorpe and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce's Goro projects, the two largest nickel mines under construction, exacerbated supply shortfalls, helping drive price increases.

``Prices will remain strong over the next two years given the lack of supply growth until 2009 at the earliest,'' Gray and Ong wrote in the report. ``The current profile of new smelters is unlikely to be enough to feed ongoing strong demand from the stainless steel industry in the next two years.''

Nickel for immediate delivery rose $1,800, or 3.5 percent, to $54,025 a ton on May 18. Prices have jumped 155 percent in the past year as inventories plunged 78 percent to an amount equal to less than two days of global consumption.

Only three of 11 nickel mine and smelter projects under way, including Ravensthorpe and Goro, will start production before 2010, the analysts said.

Risk of Delay

``Any delay in the 2008 startup of Ravensthorpe and the 2009 startup of Goro will clearly make our global smelter growth forecasts of 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.3 percent growth in 2008 look too aggressive and would help underpin the current strength in nickel prices,'' the report said.

The forecast by Credit Suisse compares to the $55,000 a ton estimate of Standard Bank analyst Michael Skinner made April 26.

Prices are expected to stay ``strong'' over the next two years given the lack of smelter supply growth until 2009, the report said. They may also gain should an anticipated increase in production of lower grade ferro nickel from China be overestimated, the analysts wrote.

``The strength in today's nickel price is a good lead indicator to suggest that the ramp up of Chinese production is clearly taking longer than expected to make an impact,'' they said. ``Our suspicion is that the ramp up of Chinese production will not make a significant dent in global supply until 2009 at the earliest.''

The bank is assuming demand growth of 3 percent this year, rising to 5 percent should stainless steelmakers build inventories in the third quarter. A ``pronounced'' cutback to stainless steel production may damp demand for nickel and threaten prices, Credit Suisse wrote