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KANTH R | My company's earnings beat our expectations, but stock price went down. Can somebody explain this anamoly? |
In 2007, ,my company did extremely well both interms of total revenues and also net income. The numbers certainly beat my company's expectations. Our company also made significant improvement in market share. Most of our competitors were in losses. However, when the company's annual report (10K) was released, the stock prices went down. I couldn't understand why. Are there some other factors that determine the stock price? If so, what are those? My guess will be that the net income will be the most significant contributor to determining the stock price. Is this not true? |
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ronwizfr
|
One of the stock market proverbs is: "Buy the rumor, sell the fact." In other words, nobody cares what your company did last year, what is important is what it will do in the future.
So, what was in the 10K? Diminishing profits with respect to last years stellar performance? Revenues expected to go down because of the recession?
Apart from that, there are quite a few factors that determine stock price. The current most important one is: who will be still alive next time this year? |
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T D
 |
If you gave us the company name, you would get a better answer instead of a general answer. |
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jeff410
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Its the analysts expectations that matters. If they beat those then the stock may rise. On the other hand, there is a saying in the market, buy on the rumor, sell on the news. The market may have anticipated good earnings and sold off on the news. |
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Bhau
|
This is global fear and many investeors downloaded there shares.
More supply and less demand - prices went down.
These fearful investors have short site.
but if your company have done well invest now.
this the best time
You will beat market after 1 year! |
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cancan
 |
Stock price is indicative of expectations, not the performance of the company. |
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sts7b
|
All boats go down when the tide goes out.
Get out. And stay out. We're heading for a market crash and another Great Depression.
What's really going on:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/R9sT...
or
http://tinyurl.com/2p5qyk
That's right: $91 Trillion in derivatives, financed by 1 1/4 trillion dollars of investor assets. That's almost double the total global GDP (approx. $48 Trillion) for JP Morgan alone. Funny money. IOU's. Another $34 Trillion for CitiBank and $32 Trillion for Bank of America, each with $1 1/4 Trillion backing their bets.
And how they got away with it:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080328/derivativ...
or
http://tinyurl.com/3b8vjn
As Paul Harvery would say, "And now for the rest of the story." These are very
interesting looking numbers. And very revealing. While it's true that existing
single family home sales were up 2.8% month to month-- they were down 22.9%
year to year. How does that old saw go? Figures don't lie; but liars figure?
Existing Home Sales: Feb 08 (preliminary): Single Family Only for Printing (click on the PDF Adobe icon): http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/file...
Things are going to get worse, too: U.S. Economic Outlook 2008: http://tinyurl.com/pehzp or
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/file...
And commercial real estate looks like it's starting to go downhill too:
Commercial Real Estate: http://tinyurl.com/yw9hf5 or
http://www.globalindices.standardandpoor... Warehouse and Desert Mountain West have already headed south.
Protecting democracy requires an Informed electorate.
If you agree, please copy and paste this to whomever you wish. |
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raysor
|
Rising debt? Chairman's statement about future pessimistic? Sector sentiment? Could be loads of reasons-it's all about discounting the future |
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A nobody
 |
The only factor that drives the price of a stock is "buyers'
The more buyers, the higher it goes, fewer buyers, the lower if goes,
You can have the greatest company in the world, making the best product in the world, and if no one wants your stock it will not go up.
Currently in the markets have been erattic, not knowing where their goomg and the people in them are hesitate about letting them move upward. So your company becomes part of its environment, when all the market starts to move, your company will probably catch on also
Hang in |
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muncie birder
 |
Bear market. That is the main factor causing stock prices currently to drop. Not all companies are effected equally though. Some such as fertilizer companies are doing gang busters. But if your company is in an industry that is expected to not do too well in a recessionary environment, earning really do not mean squat. It is what investors think will happen this year and next that really matters. Moreso this year than next.
net income is a significant contributor indeed, but some companies have a problem with stock option exposure, which means that even though net income might increase, eps does not as the ceo and other over paid execs cash in his options. |
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efflandt
|
You never know. Sometimes the stock just got too enthusiastic and is just correcting to where it should be. Or if it is in an index or major mutual funds that sector goes out of favor. So your sector or industry group can drag you down.
I got caught up in a couple of those where the company was increasing earnings 30% YOY and QOQ, yet the stock suddenly dropped 30-50%. In one case as a clueless newbie, I got tired of riding out a long summer and bailed at $21, a week before the company was bought out at $28. Another was dropping during the earnings report webcast, and during the question and answer session when somebody asked why, the officers had no clue. Apparently investors just thought things were going to change and got scared out like lemmings.
But I also made out on another one that I realized was rolling over and sold at $25+. It later bounced off of $10 and has been lingering around $12-13.
You just have to stay diversified and not put too many eggs in one basket. |
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Volatility K
|
First, if the stock started going down when the 10K was released the obvious question is, what was in the 10K?
Second, just because you beat your company's earnings expectations doesn't mean you beat the expectations that Wall Street had for your company's earnings. This "whisper number" is what the market expects and if you fall short your stock is going to get beaten up. |
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