
4XTrader
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Oh, I have to laugh. You got people here spitting out data as hard facts and then tell you to do your research and don't listen to others. You've got people like Shadow saying they'll synthesize it and thus they'll have a lot of it and it will be worthless. Actually, they have synthesized gold. You know why they aren't producing tons of it? Because the process to make it is more than the value of gold. Do synthesize gold, you'd have to change the structural composition of atoms. Like in the legend of Merlin turning lead to gold. The problem is that you'd have to add/subtract protons, electrons and neutrons to what ever your changing to change it from the molecular composition of whatever it is to the molecular composition of gold. Does he think that's something that will cost $29.95 + tax? I don't think so.
Next, you have taxigringo dispensing information like law and then telling you to do your own research so you don't have to listen to anyone else. Hello, if that's the case, why then are you dispensing information - and erroneous information at that. For example, he says the purchasing power of gold has remained unchanged. What kind of garbage is that. Yet the dollar has lost over 95% of it's purchasing power, yet he's not blasting the dollar, why? And where does he get the fact that gold's purchasing power hasn't changed. Excuse me taxigringo, but if you're going to make a statement like that, at least do YOUR research. Let's take this example - in 1968, the average median home price in the U.S. was $25,000 and the average price of gold was $38.69. So, if you wanted to buy a house, it would take 646 oz. of gold to buy an average house. Today, the average median home price in the United States is $241,840 and the average price of gold is $603.24. Thus to buy the average home today in the U.S., you'd need 490 oz. of gold - 156 LESS ounces than in 1968. In the early 1970's, I remember an average car costing about $3000 (if memory serves me correct , I was like 6-7 yrs old in the early 70's) and with gold averaging $45/oz. back then, it took 66 oz to buy a car. Today, the average automobile would run about $25-$30,000 depending on what you get and with gold averaging $603/oz, that means that it would take 41-49 oz. of gold to buy a car, about 20 oz LESS than the late 70's. So, where the heck is taxigringo getting the idea that gold pruchasing power has remained unchanged. Taxi, your own words condem you, YOU do YOUR OWN research before spouting off with WRONG information. If you want to verify it yourself, I got the median housing price data at this website:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/cenc25/c25m01
and the average gold prices at Kitco at this website:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html
Also, taxi says that gold traders make their money by "scaring" people into buying gold. Let me see, so I guess that gold traders cause natural disasters like the 2004 Tsunami, or started wars or engineered financial crises like the 1997 Asian currency crisis? Or do they just hide in dark corners and jump out and yell "Boo" thus causing people to be scared and scurry off to buy gold? Taxi, you need to do your research first dude.
Then you've got tater saying that gold rises when inflation is an issue - which is indeed correct, but then goes and says that inflation is taming. First tater, so listening to the government spin and look at what's happening around you. If inflation were taming, why then are the majority of central banks raising their rates to fight inflation? The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Austalia have all raised rates because of inflation, and Trichet, head of the ECB has made it clear, he is going to raise rates again. Inflation taming? 3 years ago, the average price of crude oil was around what, $30-$35/bbl? Today, it's $62/bbl. That's tame? Crude had doubled in price and inflation is tame? Housing prices have doubled in the country in the last 5 years, rents are substantially higher now than 10 years ago and inflation is tame? Because I live and work in D.C., I have many friends that work for the gov't and they tell me that the gov't massages the numbers to make things "look good". I have a friend that works for the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) and she works in the area of compiling data for the big wigs, she tells me that they DO NOT like data this not good and want the economists/data compilers to "massage" the numbers so they're not so bad. So tater, stop listening to the "official" gov't report, they're misleading to say the least. Curious is correct in that the dollar is in major trouble. It is true, the dollar is on the verge of a collapse. So, since the U.S. imports virtually everything it consumes and a weaker dollar means higher import prices, that is inflationary. But then he says you can make money in gold futures and options. He is right. I trade futures and options - BUT they are not for the timid or faint of heart. Only a small percentage of the population has the risk tolerance levels to trade them. Curious, you need to stop throwing out futures/options as an investment vehicle without qualifying how risky they are.
Then you've got Slew and Curious calling $3000/oz "wishful thinking" or "magical numbers". Do you know how they come up with that dollar figure? They just don't pull it out of a hat or make up a number. They use inflation adjusted prices to arrive at the figure. When looking at prices there are two ways at looking at them, nominal prices and real prices. Nominal prices are non-inflation adjusted prices, while real prices are inflation adjusted. I'll give you an example, the Dow is now trading at the 12,400 range, but that number is the nominal average. The real (inflaion adjusted) number for the Dow is 10,400. In other words, the Dow is OVERVALUED by 2,000 points based on adjusting for inflation. To get a true picture, YOU MUST adjust for inflation, if you don't that's meaningless. Let me give you an example why; in the early 70's if you were making $10,000/year, you were in fat city. Today, if you're making $50,000/year, you're living a VERY VERY modest lifestyle. Sure, your nominal wages went up 5 times, but your real wages have actually gone down. Back then, you only needed 1 parent working to make ends meet, today, you have to have both working to make ends meet, yet the income of 2 parents now is vastly higher than 1 parent 30 years ago, but you can not survive with only 1 parent working unless that 1 parent has a VERY high paying job. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the average American is making less today than in 1972 based on inflation adjusted wages. So, you have to look at real numbers, not nominal numbers to get a true picture of what's going on. They way that the $3,000 figure was arrived at was taking gold ultimate high of $850/oz in 1980 and adjusting for inflation up to today. So, if you take the $850/oz top that occurred over 25 years ago, the inflation adjusted price of gold would be $2500 - $3000/oz. So, slew and curious, to you two I say, do your research before you open your mouth. They took hard data and then ran the computation using inflation data to arrive at the $3000 price. Where is that "wishful" thinking or "magical". They used historical, factual data and mathimatical computations to arrive at an inflation-adjusted number - meaning that if gold were to be trading at it's TRUE value, it would need to be selling for $2500 to $3000/oz. Thus, gold is UNDERVALUED by 75% to 80%.
Googly, what happened with technology stocks is that people just went insane. Remember, stock brokers make their money by peddling stocks. Do you realize that during that time, when companies were showing data that was negative that stock brokes would not switch to "sell", they'd still issue a "buy" or "hold', but not a "sell". That's because many brokers are also investment bankers. They underwrite an issue, they buy those share from the issuing company and then sell them to the public at a higher price. They wouldn't dare issue a sell as they would lose their jobs. If you're selling real estate, would you tell your clients that "now is a lousy time to buy"? No, because that's your bread and butter and if your superiors found out you were saying that how much longer do you think you'd have a job?
When the people are telling you $3000/oz. all they're doing is telling you that based on real (inflation adjusted) numbers, that gold would have to reach a price of $3000/oz in order to equal that all time highs set in 1980 of $850/oz in inflation terms. So, how can that be manipulating the market? It would be no different than me saying "you need to make $60,000/year in income to match the purchasing power of an income of $10,000 30 years ago". I mean, that is true. Could you survive on an income of $10,000 per year today? No. In order to be able to buy a car, and rent an apartment or buy a house or something, you'd need to be making upwards of $50k to $60k per year. That's what they've done with gold, all they're saying is that adjusted for inflation, gold is still undervalued.
It's interesting that the Dow is overvalued based on real (inflation adjusted) numbers, yet no one says anything about it. But gold is trading way below it's inflation adjusted numbers and everyone is calling it a conspiracy, that gold traders are manipulating the situation to drive prices up. People are saying that the Dow will be trading at 16,000 or there was one book called "Dow 40,000", yet NO ONE even questioned that let alone advocate that it's people doing things to drive up prices.
No, googly, $3000 an oz is not a play, it's a prices that is computed and arrived at by adjusting the all time gold price high for inflation. |