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Fan Of Obama | The market fell today because of the discount rate? |
can someone explain why that is so important. The fed fund rates was baked into the market but investors was hoping for more the 25 bases points for the discount rate. Please explain why |
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water_skipper
 |
It's just stupid mob mentality. Except for the banks affected by the loan mess, there's nothing majorly wrong with the US economy. |
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chungsty
|
The market fell for a whole host of reasons; one of those reasons was that the 25 basis cut was less than expection. The other reason is that the Fed's language surrounding its release continued information that also caused disappointment when compared against expectations.
What I am saying, as a general rule, is that investors has priced the market based on certain future expectations. If the news met the expectation, then the market was correct and the market shouldn't change as much. If the news was better than expectations, the market would trade up to adjust for this positive event. Conversely, if the news was worse than expectation, the market would trade down.
The key points are that there are numerous factors that drive the market and that news is random or unpredictable. Also, the market is forward looking and trades based on new information. |
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rotcfreak1
 |
Alright, here's the deal. The Fed controls the money supply. The rate they charge is for loans to banks. If they lower the rate, banks can get more money and give out more money. This is good when you're fighting unemployment, but inflation starts to occur. Back in November, everyone was afraid the inflation rate would rise, but it has been kept under control, so the Fed thought it was ok to lower rates and help people out. The problem with the market isn't that anything was wrong today, it is with the speculators. They all thought and wanted the Fed to lower rates by a half a percent, which has only happened like twice in the past five or six years if that. Because the Fed only lowered rates by a quarter of a percent, everyone got ticked off and sold for cheaper, causing the market to go down. Just watch, because tomorrow, things will be back to normal. |
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Michael F
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It fell as the traders wanted more of a cut in the discount and interest rates. A bunch of crybabies!! |
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HeavyD
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Yes, the market wanted a 50bps cut...didn't get it, so stocks were sold off...D |
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src50
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Speculators bought stocks betting on a 50-point cut. When it didn't happen, they sold. Those traders who made money were the ones shorting the market. It has nothing to do with the actual worth of public companies. Its all about speculation. |
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Tom H
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The market expected more than just the 25 bps rate cut in both the overnight and discount rates, AND for good reason!
1) The credit markets are a mess and mostly siezed up, because,...
2) The housing market problems ARE spilling over into the rest of the economy.
3) Most brokerage economists are now predicting a better than 50% probability of a US recession.
4) Don Kohn the vice chairman of the Fed gave a speech a week or two ago, and plainly said that things were a mess and that it was time for major Fed action. People weren't sure he was serious, but one day later chairman Bernanke reiterated Kohn's statements.
Mainly because of 4) the market really expected the Fed to deliver on the chairman's and vice chairman's tough talk. They DID NOT DELIVER.
The market may have been molified by an aggressive Fed statement and guidance today, but the statement was equivocating and gutless.
Bernanke and Kohn probably would have cut 50 bps or used a more aggressive statement if they were the only two decision makers. Bernanke COULD have forced through a decision over numerous governor objections, but he prefers to have majority decisions at FOMC. A big mistake, I think.
Your question distinguishes between the overnight rate and the discount rate. Most folks really didn't expect more than a 25 bps for the overnight rate, but were hoping for a 50 bps cut in the discount.
Why? The lower overnight rate pumps money into the general economy, but the lower discount window rate helps stimulate money flow between banks. It is the bank to bank lending that is frozen up now and desperately needs help. Cutting more here would help a lot without overheating the general economy too much.
But the third option the market would have settled for, but didn't get, was a better Fed statement with more aggressive guidance going forward. |
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zero_shiki
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what market are you referring to?!.. the american market?... |
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mason pearson
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The amount of the cut didn't matter, I don't think anyone but the most optimistic expected a 50bp cut, particularly in light of the jobs report. The street buys the rumor and sells the news. If you look at the history of the market you fill find on the day of the cut the market either sells off or basically stays neutral. I stayed on the sidelines today, because I knew the market would fall but not how far. |
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