
jeff m
 |
A lot depends on whether we go the way of inflation, or deflation.
If we end up with inflation over 10 percent, like the 70s, you don't want your money tied up long term earning 4 percent (like current 10 yr treasuries) . Your treasuries would lose value, as soon as inflation really kicked in (and fear of stocks declined). they are worth about 115$ now, in the 70s they were worth about 45$ at one point. if you put your money in a long term cd, similar loss in value will occur.
During a deflation people are willing to accept low returns - you'll wish you'd locked in a 4 percent yield, and a safe place to keep your savings. The value of a treasury would increase, as buyers became willing to accept ever lower rates of yield.
It seems to me like we are poised between the two, and this accounts for a lot of the volatility - first people rush into commodities (inflation), then into treasuries (deflation). At one point last week, the yield on 3 month treasuries went negative- people were paying the govt. to borrow money. (really deflationary- or just a safe parking place)
during the 30s, people stashed their money under their mattress and such ( or treasuries, which are registered to buyer) - not a bad choice, without fdic insurance. fdic insurance makes banks feel safer, but (like any insurance) they left themselves an out, in case things got really bad. they can take up to 99 years to make good, if your bank fails. Don't take it from me- go to the fdic website. unlikely,but...
I was convinced we'd inflate our way out of it- but there's limits to how much money the gov't can create, without kicking off really horrendous inflation. Replacing the wealth destroyed (assett deflation) in the last year is a tall order. Without assetts backing them up, banks can't loan. The japanese govt. can create money, too, but they've had a long spell of deflationary recession.
Notice that Ben Bernanke, the fed chief, as a scholar of the great depression started off determined that avoiding deflation at all costs was the way to go. Note the rapid rate cuts (and commodity inflation). But they unanimously refused to lower rates at the meeting last week,(preferring more targeted assistance to keep credit markets working)- but all that spending risks inflation also.
.Summary: don't expect safety, and high yield right now. I'd recommend short term cd, or treasuries in a safety deposit box - and study the stock market- there should be irresistable buying opportunity in the next year or so.
P.S. another factor - huge treasury holdings in china and opec countries. What will happen to the value, if they decide they don't want to risk holding our debt, and being paid in inflated dollars? and: financing govt debt. right now, govt. can sell a 10yr t-bill for 116$. if people wanted 12% return, due to inflation, and a 10yr was only worth 45$ again? and earned 7$? / year interest, and was redeemed at 100$? If it wasn't for all the retirees here, with pensions holding bonds, I'd say screw them all, lets inflate away. will they dare? can it be avoided? |