Net Advisor
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I think we will re-test the low on the S&P made in Oct.
The key is do we hold and bounce, or go lower. If we bounce we could rocket again, but depending on what the next administration does, we could move higher or lower.
I think to have the idea that the market ONLY goes up from here thru the next year would be a dangerous assumption.
In a Bear Market, the market will have sharp up and down movements. |
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piet lul
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I'm sure there will be some up days. |
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Steve B
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No one knows when the market will rebound, but there are some techniques you can use to make money when it recovers.
Heres' a good article on investing in this market:
http://www.fiscalsanity.com/investing/getting-back-into-the-market-the-sane-way-68.htm |
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Nick Z
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I don't think anyone knows what this probability is. And no one can know because it depends on events and decisions that haven't happened yet. You need to know the future in order to know this probability.
The best people can do is guess. And to avoid a false sense of confidence, you should call it a 'guess' rather than a 'probability'.
My guess is that the stock market will be lower a year from today. Because there are many economic and trade imbalances in the global economy that need to be resolved. And so far not much has been done to resolve them. |
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Ivy G
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Very likely.
It bounces around a lot.
Also I think having a democrat in office is likely to raise confidence. |
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Dave RC
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Even master investor Warren Buffett doesn't claim to be able to predict that. It could be a lot lower, or a lot higher, or neither. He does believe stocks will be higher a decade from now than they are currently, most likely substantially higher. In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it is a weighing machine.
You may wish to read the book The Warren Buffett Way by Hagstrom, in particular the section about Mr. Market.
Dave |
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itsjunglepat
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I'd say fair with the possibility of bleak. I do expect downside in the beginning in the year from bankruptcies. Really, in the standard sense, (though I short stocks and am looking to buy real estate), the economy is not looking pretty. |
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Daniel son
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We are going into a shorts (selling on the highs) market for the next week and then depending on the news its down down down. A possible slow build until 2010. It is all about earnings and -good news- i.e. housing, building etc.
We are in a place that is seldom visited and few brokers are willing to speculate on the markets future. How can I, the laymen, even attempt. Take no advice. Wait. See the rebound take effect. Then make our move. Some are trying to catch the market before the rebound and they are getting burnt. It is not worth the smidgen of a 5% to 10% gain if your luck pans out. I have a felling we will see the numbers 7000's. |
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Thor
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I think the economy will take longer than that to recover. The recession has just started.
I also think the stock market will head down lower from here, for a while.
And last, to answer the question directly, the stock market tries to trade at least 6 months or more ahead of the reality so I think it is very likely it will be up a year from now and if not, then not long after that. |
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