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Mike L | What should you invest in during stagflation? |
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Tom H
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Commodity related investments are tricky now because they are seen a safe haven from a falling dollar (forex) and a play on a booming global (BRIC) economy.
Stagflation means a stagnating US economy & most smart investors think that foreign economies won't be red hot in that case. Maybe not as bad as the US, but not super strong. The already overvalued commodity trade won't work in that case.
Shorting the right stocks might work. Or you can try to find lower P/E stocks with good earnings growth that can be mostly sustained through the stagnation. Investors hate high P/E's in a high inflation environment.
Stocks that I own that fit this bill are: MO, CG, are UNH. But these have already had a great run over the last few months, so they are a little expensive for new money. However, if we get serious stagflation I think UNH will go higher than the analysts think.
Another possibility are some of the better money center banks like WFC, USB, and maybe BAC. They are really cheap, and high inflation means the long bond rates will be very high.
The question mark is the Fed funds rate. Will it be high (to fix inflation) or low (to fix the recession)?? If it is low, then the yield curve will be steep, and banks will make a ton of money. |
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mstrobert
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Stgagflation is generally when cost rise, not due to demand.
For example the underlying cost of products increase drastically, yet there is no new growth for he products. Resulting in High inflation, but not growth for products themselves.
Good investments during this period are hard assets like commodities, real estate etc. Since they are what's going up in value. |
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mntndo
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When the economy is crumy, invest in stocks, one will be buying low. |
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oracle
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in the stock market |
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Frederick M
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"Stagflation" is a word used a lot in the mid- to late 'seventies, to define a stagnant economy with high inflation rates.
Wikipedia "stagflation" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
The best-yielding instruments in a period of stagflation are money-market funds.
Wikipedia "money funds," "money market funds" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_funds |
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slavaret2
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Go with the flow: most stocks decline in a bad market, so shorting is your best bet. Or consider something like SDS. |
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googie
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Never heard of stagflation. Apparently we are having a slew of new works which don't appear in any dictionary. |
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