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Additional Details
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Spider Pig | Why have we not learned anything from these investment market crashes? |
1930-stock market crashed
1999- the dot-com hype crashed also.
2007- housing market slum?
Does it occur that when things are seemingly on the rise and rise and rise, that it will crash soon? |
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THE WRAITH OF GOD IS COMING
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Housing was caused by decreased interest rates that were caused by the 1999 dot-com hype. Interest rates were lowered to get more equity in the market, but allowed poor loans to be given out and led us here.
Yes I have learned a lot about the markets. |
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rlloydevans
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People don't like history in school and they don't like thinking about mistakes froma day gone by. When things are going well you feel good and optimistic, you don't want to believe that you are making the same mistakes as before.
Actually, a better lesson should have been the Savings and Loan Debacle of 1980. there, rising housing costs caused massive competitions for loans, especially larger loans for businesses and apartment buildings. Bankers started granting loans for people who massively over reported their assets and ability to repay a loan, because they always thought the housing prices would always increase to keep themselves safe (sound familiar?)
That debacle killed the real estate market for about five years and the government had to pay out over $179billion in 1980 dollars to clean up the financial mess.
Version 2007 is the Subprime Mortgage Debacle, different players, same story. The primary difference, though, is that the S&L's were government insured and loans were based on deposits. Here these are strictly institutional and private investors and not government insured, so it could get much, much worse. |
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ccm_1052_tacks
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Plenty is learned from every crash. The more recent versions are due to get rich quick models that attempt to bend the rules of suply of demand. The housing market dropped when there were more houses for sale than people to buy them. Because it was the latest way to get rich quick lots of people had sunk too much capitol into homes that they were no longer able to sell. Suddenly they get left with extra property with a bad mortgage and rising interest rates. Prices fall out of desperation because if they don't sell they go bankrupt (also bad for the market). Of course none of this bothers me at all as I will now be able to get a nice house for much less than it is really worth.
I suppose the main lesson that doesn't ever sink in is that trendy get rich quick plans generally leave you poor. |
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alaska6336
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I think there is merit to your question and it would seem that the answer is obvious. It is always best in my opinion to invest for the long term and do it in a slow and determined way. If you were buying $100 of a MF or Stock each payday last month, you will do well to continue since buying it this month will net you more shares than it did the last time you bought. Bad news is infectious just as good news can be infectious, work towards the long view and you will do well over time |
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Ipsydoodle
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Excuse me but interest rates dropped to historic lows because of a mild post Y2K recession was exacerbated by the destruction of the World Trade Center.
The fed began aggressive point cutting after the attacks. This flushed huge amounts of liquidity into the credit markets.
The ultimate answer is that those who ignore the lessons of history are damned to repeat them. Irrational investing has been going on for a lot longer than just since the 1930's. Read up on the famous Dutch tulip debacle of 1637 |
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Lost in Maryland
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We are a product of our culture. We just keep on plugging even though history is going to repeat itself over and over. |
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Ryan S
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Mean reversion is an appropriate term....
its hard to pick bottoms and tops... but if it wasnt for illogical rises and falls below fair value where would you make money? ... the beautiful fun of investing is recognizing these opportunites and selling/buying into them...
if everyone learned... there would be no more greed/fear to profit from...investing would become much more boring.
a favorite quote of mine... from I believe John Templeton : "the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent."
cheers... this should be an interesting one to learn from |
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MVD34
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If you are an investor, market crashes are a good thing because they take the losers out and offer you the opportunity to invest more money at reasonable prices.
So to answer your question. Market crashes ARE the lesson and if you got hurt, you are the newbie who needs to learn a lesson and get out and stay out.
New decade. New Newbies. Same old lesson.
Rinse and repeat.
(2000/1 Dot com crash not 1999...and lets not forget 1971-3, 1987, 1994, 1997-8 just to name a few I've lived thru ) |
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southron2002
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It is called cycles, and we have indeed learned how to reduce the extreme highs and lows. In the big picture, the housing slump is small. We do need to lower the service cost of capital and free production from taxation. The Fair Tax Act will do that. http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer?pagename=about_research |
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