Jessie is a Hardy fan
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this country is in shambles
"We still think an official recession is not in the immediate future," concluded Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast set for official release Thursday.
Some economists and financial pundits have warned the nation will sink into recession, with a wave of reset adjustable-rate mortgages tearing through the economy next year.
Leamer, however, insisted the housing woes alone won't hobble the economy enough to cause two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the nation's gross domestic product _ the standard used to define a recession.
In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate would have to soar from the current 4.6 percent to nearly 6 percent by the end of next year, the equivalent of a loss of at least 2 million jobs, Leamer said.
That would require major job losses from a sector other than construction, something the UCLA economist doesn't see happening.
Heavy job losses in manufacturing, which has shed about 3 million jobs since 2001, could have such an impact, but Leamer believes that is implausible.
Still, he projects the economy will remain sluggish for another couple of quarters before starting to rebound in the second half of 2008.
The forecast estimated the housing slump cost the U.S. economy a percentage point of growth this year, or one-third of the typical 3 percent annual rate of increase.
Leamer predicted U.S. housing prices will continue to drop, and levels of new construction will remain depressed, through 2009. |
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HL2k
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We've been in a recession for awhile actually, just its not been publicly annouced for fear of inciting rioting/panic
Enjoy |
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water_skipper
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Not worldwide, but maybe in the US. There's a lot that's wrong with the US economy, the most obvious being the subprime mortgage incident. |
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Martin B
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Try 2008. It will be a worldwide depression by '09. |
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james h
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No we will not have recession in 2009 and we are not currently in one now. A recession occurs when GDP is declining for two straight quarters or economic growth is negative. Because of our current weak dollar, our GDP will not decline.
The market may continue to take more hits, but we are not and will not have a recession. The Fed has made it clear that they are willing to devalue the dollar and turn their heads to inflation in order to keep us out of an inflation.
I hope this helps.
http://www.thestocktalk.net |
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*Alexa*
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You mean, it didn't already begin? |
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OddsRIH8U
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If not sooner.... |
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qu1ck80
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Well, if you're talking about a US recession, it would most likely happen in 2008. The economy is already slowing down, and if it slows down much more then probably by the first quarter next year we'll have negative growth. But IMO it probably won't last longer than a year, and we'll pop out of it by 2009. |
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djcapron
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Will most likely be a depression by then. I run a small business. I already feel the pain! |
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Dom
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Every year there is supposed to be a new 'recession'. Don't hold your breath. |
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▲ßûІІѕ vÅŸ ßèÄÅ—Ñ•â–¼
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we might not even get a recession... as long as housing is under control.. |
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Scott Evil
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Part of the strength of an economy is its perception by other nations. I think that when we finally get an overhaul in government, other countries will have some faith in our economy, and that itself will start to fix the problem. |
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DMG
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2009...I thought it started in 2006..... |
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loppinaroundrabbitry
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what would make you say that???
i doubt ity unless it is purposly induced. |
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