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 Feds cutting 3/4 of a point, what does that mean for home refi? |
Hello,
I've been stuck in an option arm loan for about 3 years now. I like to refi as soon as possible, but really havent notice rates dropping by that much for a 5 yr interest only ... |
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Additional Details
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Additional Details
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happee | Do you think that mortgage rates will drop in the next 30 days? I know it's not a sure thing, but I'm curious. |
We're planning to refinance our 7-year ARM (5.125%, expires 12/2011) and 7.9% 2nd mortgage. Right now, we can get it at 6.25% in one mortgage, but we were hoping for a 6.125 or 6% mortgage (since we're not in a huge rush to refi, but want to play it safe since rates are pretty decent on 30-year loans).
I know the Fed might drop rates again before the end of the year, but I know it doesn't directly affect rates as much as stocks, bonds, and the Treasury Bill. These are the aspects of the market I am clueless about...
What do YOU predict will happen or what would you recommend we do? We would be paying less than we pay now, no matter what, so we're gonna refi, it's just a matter of when.
Thanks SOOOOO much for your help! If you give the best/most accurate prediction or recommendation, I'll send you a box of goodies (7-layer bars, cookies, brownies, or your choice)! And they'll be awesome, I promise!
Additional Details
FYI: We do plan to stay here for AT LEAST 10 more years. Otherwise, we wouldn't consider switching.
Our loan would be for $320,000.
I should also point out that our mortgage payment would DROP from $2428 to $2358 (at 6.5%). Our second mortgage at 7.9% on 90,000 is the reason...
We've paid $9,000 in principal in the past 33 months and our home is valued at $380,000 (appraised).
Buying down the rate actually costs more, even long-term, so we won't be doing it again.
Thank you so much, everyone, for all of your thought-out answers! I'd love even more...
I think we can afford to wait a few more months--if needed--to catch a slightly better rate. Our credit is good (700+), so I think we can get a decent loan. |
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edco
 |
Happee (what a great handle!)
My 2 cents !
We are coming in to a traditionally WEAK period in the stock market, as companies begin to report 3Q earnings. While I certainly dont have a crystal ball, I'd wager that the market has been priced to perfection, and therefore we'll see a weaker stock market in Oct. October is often the "correction" month, as investors begin to move out of weak stocks for end of year window dressing. If you look back on many of the "crashes" over the years, October is often a bearish month.
Now that said, your risk of waiting is probably low anyway. And is that 1/8 point going to make a HUGE difference, when you factor in the tax write offs? Maybe, but if you have other debt (car loans, credit cards, etc) then it COULD make sense to refi now, incorporate those extra debts into a deductible motgage, and be done with them.
Good Luck
ED |
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Enigmatic
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A lot of business projections are predicting a 25 to 50 basis point drop in prime before the end of the year. (That's 1/4 to 1/2 percent.) I doubt this will have much effect on mortgage rates, since they don't fluctuate as much as prime does. |
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MaryBerry
 |
My crystal ball says you should look into an F.H. A. loan. They are just over 5% fixed for 30 years, and they are trying to approve a 40 year right now!
These are not based on your credit, you only need a job & tax returns. Your loan cannot be more than $416,000.00.
(something without chocolate or dairy . . . thank you!) |
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mtg guy
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If you can get a 30yr fixed at 6.25% vs. 6% (maybe if rates drop?) I would refinance why would you risk (in this market now) it at best your only saving about 53 per month (if 30 fixed drops to 6%) not worth it in my opinion, the market is to crazy for $53.00 per month savings, Yes if you wait the rate may be lower but the guide line may be more difficult and you may end up paying a higher rate because you will have to borrow more than 80% of the value of your home ex.
It looks like you need a LTV (loan to value of 85% of the value of your home)
Home value=$380,000
X.85
_____________________
$320,000.00 new loan amount
Although your credit score is in the 700’s you may pay a higher rate because you’re over 80% of the value of your home. So even though rates may go down (we don't know)
You may pay a higher rate due to guide lines tighten up.
If I was you I would refinance now at 6.25% combine my 1st and 2nd and don't worry about that $53.00 per month that you may or may not save...
If you have any more questions please email me @ Mballard86@yahoo.com I'm a mortgage lender with over 10 yrs experience I can lend in all 50 states |
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godged
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This drop in prime rate was meant to spur the stock market, encourage consumer confidence coming into the holiday season and reduce mortgage rates to bolster the housing market. Since the recent drop in the Fed has achieved the desired affect, I doubt we'll see another drop before the end of the year.
The rates now are great. I would be really surprised if rates drop again, but if they do, it would be after the holidays.
You are gambling either way, no one can accurately predict the future of interest rates. |
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Rick B
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I doubt you will see another change from the Fed in the next 30 days. If the economy continues to look like it does, then they might lower rates slightly before the end of the year.
Just my opnion though.
I'd wait a month or two. I DOUBT the rates will be going up in the next 30 to 60 days. |
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CAPTAIN
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yes |
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Mortgagegirl05
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As a mortgage broker, I can tell you that I have actually seen rates climb up since the feds made their cut the other day!! There is no way to predict the market but I can tell you that an eighth of a percent or even a quarter really doesn't make that big of a difference in your mortgage payment. You can get online and use a mortgage calculator to tell you the difference or if you want, shoot me some numbers and Ill calculate them for you. You could always buy down your rate by paying points if you have a target rate... that's not necessarily the recommended route, but something to think about...
Something else to think about... Everyday, the guidelines to obtain a mortgage are changing...I personally am trying to refinance out of my 5 year arm just because of that and I don't want to not be able to get a mortgage in a few months because Im self employed and can't show income!! If you have good credit, a little something in a bank account and income to support all your debt times two, than waiting shouldn't hurt you. May not help a whole lot, but it shouldn't hurt. If any of these are an issue, I would do it now just because of guideline changes and not necessarily because of rate!!!
Also consider if you are certain you are going to stay in this house that long... 5.125% is a GREAT rate that you have for 4 more years... I would hold on to it for a while if you think you may move anytime before that!!! |
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Shawna Marie
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First let me tell you that for anyone that claims to give an "accurate forecast" of what rates are going to do, that person should be incredibly rich since there is NO ONE that can make this prediction.
The Fed dropped prime rate, which has nothing to do with fixed rates.
5.125% IS A GREAT RATE!! Leave it be, why would you waste the money on closing costs to raise your rate and your payment?? And 7.9% is a GREAT RATE for a 2nd!!!
Don't fall into the hype, you have a wonderful loan that will save you money in the long run. Leave it alone!! If the rates drop down to the low 5's again like they did during the refi boom (which they've been predicting a refi boom in 2008 since last November, and when I say "they" I mean the wall street guru's), then you should consider refinancing. Don't let this market scare you into getting rid of your good loan you are in now!!!
If you ask a banker or broker, they will tell you "yes, you should refinance". Why? Because they are starving for loans, and have no ethics. They will be the one's that don't survive this crash. |
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Carolinahomerates.com
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if the stock market continues to do well....then the rates will continue to climb
mortgage rates are based upon 10yr bond notes....when the FED lowered the discount/fed funds rate.....the rates started climbing!
if the market does bad....then you will know the mortgage rates are going to drop |
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Richard S.
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I need some more information to give you an accurate answer.
First, how much is your mortgage amount? If it is a "conforming limit" (417K or less) then I'd hold off for a bit. You have a 5.125% first which is pretty good and locked in for a few years.
With the current credit crunch, the Fed is bailing out their buddies on wall street. Combine that with an election year coming up the rates have no where to go but down, or hold steady at the very least.
Depending on where your property is located your bigger fear should be declining property values. The rate may go down next year but have you considered what happens if your property drops 5, 10 or 15% in value? That is the biggest fear right now, asset deflation. So instead of combining your loans into "one loan" next year, you might be forced to take out another "piggy back" loan or pay mortgage insurance if your loan to value (LTV) exceeds 80%.
If you have a small loan, you probably could pay less than a point (1% of your loan amount) to buy down the rate to 6.125 and lock it in for 30. But you do you honestly think you'll stay in your home for 30+ years and never refi ever again??? No one does.... too many variables in life these days unless you are nearing retirement and plan to never move.
As far as the rate dropping in 30 days, I doubt there will be another rate cut that soon. They have to hold out for the rest of the year. Any more rate cuts and inflation will get out of control. The dollar is already taking a beating. |
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