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Smithtownrealestate | Do you think that the Real Estate Market has falled enough to make you step in and buy a home? |
I am a Realtor on the North Shore of Long Island and I am curious how the general public is viewing this matter.
Additional Details
whoops, it should say, "fallen enough" |
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Biggie @ Arbor Mortgage
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I am in Michigan, and right now everyone wants to buy a home. Unfortunately, there credit is messed up & they don't have any money to put down on a home. People are realizing that it is the time to take advantage of the market conditions. |
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markmyword
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Home prices have not bottomed out yet. The last study I heard was that we are still looking for at least another 10% drop. However, once again, it depends on the location. For example, in Montgomery county MD housing prices are solid. Thirty miles away in Virginia, they're still decreasing significantly.
Here's a good article.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663 |
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average joe
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It is a great time to buy homes if you are smart enough to do it. You can get a deal of a lifetime if you know what to look for due to the fact that the wrong people bought houses on lines of credit that were doomed to fail.
I think the number of people that know what they are doing to buy a home right now is far less than the number of people that dont know what they are doing. The people that dont know what they are doing to buy a home are still scared because they can see everyone else getting burnt and they are not going to buy a home anytime soon.
Basically the number of people that can see a great oppurtunity is quite small and the number of people still scared to buy a home or their credit has gone to hell due to recent economic times is over powering the market. |
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John M
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As a Realtor, you know that the most sensible buyers will evaluate the time they expect to be in the home and the time they think the market might yet fall, and balance those factors against their immediate need or desire to own vs rent. I would expect that many buyers are reaching a point where the expected continuing fall in prices is less than the amount of appreciation they can expect based on the time and amount homes have yet to fall in price, plus the time and amount they can expect houses to once again appreciate.
However, sensible and buyer not being quite an oxymoron, but close, your sales skills come into play, pointing out the signs of a market about to bottom, and the benefits of owning the home now vs later, and the longer term performance of housing in your area.
In Madison, we have a long term average appreciation rate of about 5%. We had years and years of 8 to 10% increases as interest rates fell and credit got really loose. Now that things are tight, our prices have flattened out, not really fallen too much in many parts of the housing market. We are recession resistant in our local economy, and urban sprawl has reduced the inventory of buildable lots near major employers, so existing homes carry some advantage with the gas price increases.
So here in Madison, I think its a relatively easy case to convince buyers with good credit that the time to buy is now.
Not sure about Long Island, but the concepts would be similar. You always have to keep any eye on new housing costs, as existing homes still compete with that in many markets, but I think the gas prices will give homes closer to larger employers a boost this summer. |
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Paul in San Diego
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I have heard analysts and speculators saying that the market will bottom out as soon as the end of 2008 until some time in 2010. That's when the flood of foreclosures currently on the market and those coming up will be out of the current inventory. At that point, prices should stabilize for a couple of years, and maybe make a bump and come back down a bit before rising in earnest for the next market upswing.
However, the Fed has stopped lowering interest rates, the bond market has been going up (it tracks 180 degrees to interest rates), and interest rates on mortgages have been slowly but steadily increasing. So, whatever further price reductions we might see in the next 6 to 18 months will be offset by rising interest rates.
I've been tracking sales prices in San Diego over the last 6 months. There doesn't seem to be much of a reduction - if any - both in sales prices for a specific type of property (like a 2BR/2BA condo) or in price per square footage.
Also, picking up a foreclosure is not a slam dunk, like analysts of the housing market seem to think. I've been looking at foreclosures and short sales for the last few months trying to pick up a condo as a rental in the $200K range. There's plenty out there. But, they're usually either in undesireable neighborhoods or they're trashed (the previous owner strips and/or trashes the place before moving out). These are then severely discounted. For example, I saw a place that was trashed for sale for $120K, in an area where comparables were selling for $200K, and that had been sold for over $300K in 2005. While it would take about $50K in repairs to make a place like that liveable, it still shows up in the market data as a $120K sale. This then artificially brings down the median and average sales prices for an area, making things seem worse than they actually are.
Any decent property that does come up in that price range is snapped up immediately, sometimes with bidding wars between prospective buyers. So far, I've made offers on 5 properties - sometimes with as much a 5% over the listing price, and have gotten outbid every time. Particularly by people coming in with cash offers.
Yes, it's a buyer's market. But, there are a lot of buyers out there So, start shopping now and, if you find a place you like, put an offer on it. Just don't expect to find a good place in a good location right away. There's a lot of competition right now. |
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Bubbles
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NJ here....
We are buying a foreclosed home that needs a lot of work but we are getting a home that would normally sell for $250,000 in good condition for $132,000....... We can only go up.
We are hoping to sell our home pretty quickly because rent is getting so high- people are still trying to buy their first home. |
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arch0049
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I am holding out for a few more years. Mainly to save up for the down payment. Also, where I live, Saint Paul/Minneapolis, MN, the bust has not hit the neighborhoods I want to live in. I am not sure it will. But, it will atleast keep prices in check until I am ready. Only scary thing is, now more people are going to want to buy in the city - GAS PRICES. |
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adp_14
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Personally, I don't think LI has come down as much as it needs to. I actually need to move to long island in the very near futire from Queens, and we just decided to rent for a year rather then buy now. Most sellers i've encountered in my home search aren't really aware of how bad the market is and have been reluctant to come down in price.
As an example (obviously this is just 1 personal anecdote and not a market study), We looked at one house in Merrick that was bought for 440k (thanks mynassauproperty.com) in march 2006 by the current owner, and they redid the kitchen. They are asking 570k for it now. It's an old house and only has 2 real bedrooms. Maybe they got a great deal on it a year ago, but anyone who buys it at a price approaching the asking price is just throwing money out the window.
The LI market is still inflated. Anyone who buys there now is a sucker. I'd much rather rent for a year or 2 and get the same or equivalent house for 100k less in 12-24 months. If you can get a short sale or something for well under market, that changes the equation. |
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Giggles
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Not till the prices are back down to where they would have been prior had the inflated bubble not happened |
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Expert Realtor
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The market right now is bad for sellers, not buyers.
First-time buyers, those who are newly married, and re-locaters, are still buying at the same rate as they were before.
It's the "upgraders" who have stopped buying--because most of them have a house to sell first. |
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