How likely is a residential real estate crash?

My home is in Littleton, CO -- a standard 3 br 2 bath jobbie in the burbs. I keep hearing about a pending real estate (and then maybe economy) crash. How likely is this? If there is such a crash, does that simply mean my home would be 1/2 its value? If no crash, I expect interest rates will go up and therefore bring home prices down. How much of a change are we talking?

I realize nobody knows this for sure, but are there any experts or people with experience out there who have an opinion backed up with some facts/stats?
Additional Details
It's too bad we can't turn this into a forum, it'd be nice to be able to have conversation with you all regarding your answers and experiences.

I think I should have been more specific. We're thinking of selling our home and renting because of the potential crash. We love the house, but have put a lot of money into it (the mortgage) and don't want to lose the equity because of some factors beyond our control.

So I guess I should have asked, should i stay or should i go?

Foreclosures spiked in August
Rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages contribute to 53% jump in foreclosures.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 13 2006: 5:42 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging, according to a survey released Wednesday.

In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure sales. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier.

Where foreclosures are jumping
Year over year gain in homes in foreclosure. Click for more stats on each state.
Nevada: Up 255%
California: Up 160%
Florida: Up 62%

It was the second highest monthly foreclosure total of the year; in February, 117,151 properties entered foreclosure.

Some of the bellwether real estate market states are among the leading foreclosure markets. Florida, had more than 16,533 properties in foreclosure in August. That led all states and was 50 percent higher than in July and 62 percent higher than in August 2005.

California foreclosures are increasing at an even faster annual rate, up 160 percent since last year to 12,506. And the formerly red-hot Nevada market recorded a spike of 24 percent compared with July and a whopping 255 percent increase from August 2005.

Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing, says the rising foreclosure numbers are in part the result of rising monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, which have a low introductory interest rate that heads higher after an initial period.

"Usually, foreclosures are a lagging [market] indicator," he says. "But we've never had a situation like this with adjustable-rate mortgages amounting to $400 billion to $500 billion coming up for adjustment over the rest of the year."

For a homeowner with a 5/1 ARM that's now resetting, the adjustment could add at least two percentage points to the interest rate. That could send the payment on a $200,000 loan up from about $950 a month closer to $1,200 - $250 more each month.

These exotic mortgages, which have been issued by lenders at much higher numbers the past few years, default at a higher rate than do fixed-rate mortgages. And sub-prime loans, which are much more common than in the past, have a higher default rate as well.

But, Sharga says, "The real wild card is the nature of the loans themselves. Historically, ARMs were underwritten pretty conservatively. There has been a loosening of standards with lower credit worthiness and smaller down payments."

Underlying causes
Homeowners are also in Dutch because of underlying economic conditions. Many of the worst hit markets, such as in the Midwest, are in areas hard hit by layoffs or other economic ills.

When housing markets were hot, homeowners could often avoid default through two ready made options, according to Sharga: They could sell to a ready market or they could use the increase through appreciation in their equity to refinance their homes. Increasingly, both those options are evaporating.

Contrary to what many consumers may believe, lenders are not anxious to foreclose on homes and put families out on the streets. Foreclosures tend to be money losers for lenders and are done mostly as a last resort.

Sharga says lenders are beginning to recognize that a problem is brewing and are taking steps to address it. They are much more amenable to a short sale, for example, in which they accept a low-ball, cash bid early in the default process that may not even cover their mortgage, in order to avoid a larger loss later. That can help homeowners by preserving their credit scores and easing their transitions into the rental market.

"Lenders say they're looking for ways to work with homeowners in trouble," reports Sharga. "So for homeowners looking at a default situation, the sooner they talk to their lender - and see what options are available - the better."

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/15/real_estate/metro_prices_table/index.htm?postversion=2006082114
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,187831,00.html?sPage=fnc.business/realestate
http://housing-watch.com/home.aspx?d=90
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

A decline of 10% to 20% from peak prices over the next 2 to 3 years is very possible and will happen.

Yes, a few are projecting this.

Read how bad it is by reading the financial reports from all the new home builders.

People are walking away from contracts for new homes and are happy just losing their deposit. The new home builders are waking away from options for new land.

It will get really bad when all this hits the Front Pages of all the financial publications. You shall see!

It's already started here in Connecticut. Houses are selling for over 10% less then last year. Go to http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.htm?citystatezip=littleton%2C+co&mode=browse to see what's happening in Littlleton.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/real_estate/caught_in_the_bubble/index.htm?postversion=2006090814
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/05/real_estate/Ofheo_home_prices/index.htm?postversion=2006090514

How to value a property during market downturn?

Housing market continues to slump. Now we can calculate true value of a property easily. As price decline, we don't need to guess and factor in the potential price appreciation while calculating home value. Without the guesswork, figures are more accurate.

Let's use following example:

Today, a typical 15 years old, two bedrooms condo/townhouse is priced around $500,000 and $550,000 in Sunnyvale, California. Rent for similar condo/townhouse is $2000/month.

If you are a home owner, $2,000/month in rent means $20,000 a year in profit ($24,000 per year in rent, minus $4,000 maintenance costs). A $20,000 income is equilevant of owning $400,000 bonds or CDs, because current yield of 30 Years U.S. treasuries are 5% (5% of $400,000 is $20,000). Bank CDs have similiar yields.

In our example, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 20% to 25% overpriced. They should be priced at $400,000.

It is interesting to note that if we redo the calculation from buyer's perspective instead of seller's perspective, the figures are even more shocking.

Mortgage payment consists of two parts: mortgage interests and mortgage principal. The interests portion is similar to rent. If you pay interest, it disappears and doesn't add equity to the property. To fully simulate characteristics of renting, we assume buyer will apply for a zero down, interest-only loan.

It turns out that rent of $2000/month is equivelant to mortgage payment of a $340,000 loan at 7.0% APR. And comparing $340,000 loan to $500,000 or $550,000 price tag, from buyer's view, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 30% to 35% overpriced.

One may ask, why is there a discrepancy between two perspectives of the buyer and owner?

The discrepancy is a result of 2% differences in interest rate that buyer borrow comparing to yields of bonds and CDs that owners would get. We understand that buyer would always pay more. That is the premium of buying to own. However, looking from home owner's perspective, current housing market is probably 20% to 25% overpriced. We recommand investors to wait for a better entry point.

I work in the moving industry, pittsburgh pa, mostly. I can tell you one thing people arre not moving anymore. business is down about half of what is was las year. http://www.pghmovers.com

In some places like San Diego, it costs $150K to buy a tiny one bedroom box house in the ghetto with grafitti and bars on the windows. Nice middle class homes in the mid six figures. They've been sold and resold so many times that middle class people there can barely afford middle class homes, except for commercial properties with huge assests, property is becoming hard to afford; that will effect a crash in area's like that.
That's primarily why I moved to southeast Ohio where you can still buy a nice old mansion for $100K, and really nice average housing in the $50-$60K range; in areas like this there will be no crash. I would guess Littleton/Denver to be somewhere in the middle.

You are looking for info on the real estate "bubble" theory. There are many who agree and those who don't your best tool is to research the area. You can always check out city plans to see where developments are planned and that is usually a good buy because the property will go up as more houses/businesses etc go around it.

Check "real estae bubble theory" and you find more answers that I think you are looking for.

There are several theory's on the subject but the general consensus is that we will NOT have a crash, we will have a soft landing. Housing sales are flat now and most in the biz think prices will fall further after the holidays since there is a glut of inventory out there right now and we are seeing a buyers market. With buyers sitting on the sidelines in a wait and see mode, they may start to buy after the first part of the year after houses have been sitting in the marketplace not selling, the general thinking is that by then, sellers will be ready to deal.

There will always be a market for homes. Everybody's got to live somewhere. They may put off buying for a while, but not for long. In the 70's the interest rate for mortgages was 14% and more! No one's home is going to cash out at half-value unless it was well the heck overpriced for the area in the first place.

Depends on where you are. Here in San Diego, prices are down about 20% from peak. If that fits your definition of a crash, it has already happened.

How leveraged is your market? What percentage of people can afford homes? Have unethical practices caused your price of housing to continue accelerating when it should have leveled off? These factors and others will determine whether there's going to be a crash.

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