In our industry we are either continually asking or being asked how much lower values are going to go before the road to recovery begins. As a matter of fact, I am humored by those who think there is a magic formula, a scientific equation or even a good way of guessing when the market will begin it’s upswing.

Please understand this one thing…There Is No Crystal Ball. As a matter of fact, since there is no crystal ball there is also absolutely no way of speculating that we are at the bottom or not. That means that when the media announces things like “we are not at the bottom” or “we have another year of this”, please understand that there is no way of knowing this.

Here is what we all must realize. We must realize that there is only one way to know that it was the bottom. That way is simply by “missing it” or when it is now behind us.
Additional Details
Let me state one simple fact. When America believes we are at the bottom, we will at that very moment be at the bottom. Because when America believes we are at the bottom and this is the best deal they will receive, they will act. Actions create demand and demand creates an upturn in the industry.

As long as we pay closer attention to the media than we do our own common sense, we will not be at the bottom. The media preaches that we are not at the bottom and when we listen, we confirm that. We keep waiting and that keeps the perpetuation of the downturn in motion.

I recently heard of a Realty office that had a big sign outside on its front that simply said “Smart People Are Buying Real Estate Now”. That pretty much says it all.