I have a friend that told me that they received an approximate $4000 over-refund from the government this year. They were supposed to get a refund for like $4000, but got a check from the IRS for somewhere north of $8000. They asked what I thought they should do- I told them that in addition to doing the right thing, they were highly likely to get caught if they didnt return the money. I suggested they get a CPA to guide them through the process of returning the $$ to the IRS. This was a married couple, and I know the wife wanted to return the money- but Im pretty sure the husband did not. Im 99.9% sure they just kept the money in the end. So now here we are about 4 months after they got the $$, and Im pretty darn sure they kept it, and I know they havent heard a thing from the IRS. What are really their odds of being caught? Am I just going to look like an alarmist for telling them that they were almost certain to be caught, when in reality, they werent?
Additional Details
No, they did not receive an explanation at all from the IRS, and didnt have any job changes or large capital gains. Please note- this same thing actually happened to them last year as well, but the amount they received was a couple hundred dollars more (which they also kept, and have not been caught for). The husband does his taxes by hand. It would not suprise me at all if he intentionally writes illegibly in the hopes of creating a situation like this (he's just that kind of guy- not the most ethical or bright).